2025

Together We Stand, Divided We Fall: Political Polarisation and Income Inequality in the EU and the UK

This paper investigates the link between political polarisation and inequality in Europe from 1989 to 2024. Using Bayesian Aldrich-McKelvey scaling, the DER polarisation index, and Araar decomposition, it traces polarisation's regional and structural foundations. Results show that polarisation has risen steadily, with Mediterranean and Central/Eastern Europe consistently more polarised than Western and Northern regions. Araar decomposition reveals that polarisation stems mainly from between-group alienation, not within-group identification. Divides over EU membership, class, and urban-rural residence account for much of the increase, with radical groups contributing disproportionately. Fixed-effects regressions confirm that inequality is the strongest determinant of polarisation: higher Gini values consistently predict greater antagonism. Economic growth reduces polarisation only under egalitarian conditions; when coupled with inequality, it amplifies divides. These findings highlight